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Sudden stratospheric warming

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A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an event in which polar stratospheric temperatures rise by several tens of kelvins (up to increases of about 50 °C (90 °F)) over the course of a few days.[1] The warming is preceded by the slowing and later reversal of the westerly winds in the stratospheric polar vortex.[2] SSWs occur about six times per decade in the northern hemisphere,[3] and about once every 20 to 30 years in the southern hemisphere.[4][5] In the southern hemisphere, an SSW accompanied by a reversal of the vortex westerly (soon followed by a vortex recovery) was only observed once between 1979 and 2024, in September 2002.[6] Stratospheric warming in September 2019 was comparable to or even greater than that of 2002, but the wind reversal did not occur.[7][8][9]

History

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The first continued measurements of the stratosphere were taken by Richard Scherhag in 1951 using radiosondes to take reliable temperature readings in the upper stratosphere, about 40 kilometres (25 mi) high. Later on, he became the first to observe stratospheric warming on 27 January 1952. After his discovery, he assembled a team of meteorologists at the Free University of Berlin to study the stratosphere, and this group continued to map the northern hemisphere stratospheric temperature and geopotential height for many years using radiosondes and rocketsondes.

Meteorological measurements became far more frequent with the advent of weather satellites. Although satellites were primarily used for the troposphere, they also recorded data for the stratosphere. Today, both satellites and stratospheric radiosondes are used to take measurements of the stratosphere.

Classification and description

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A MERRA-2 plot showing how SSWs can affect polar vortexes.

Sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is closely associated with polar vortex breakdown. Meteorologists typically classify vortex breakdown into three categories: major, minor, and final.[10] Although there are no standard, universally agreed upon definitions for these categories so far,[3][as of?] differences in the methodology used to detect SSWs are not relevant as long as circulation in the polar stratosphere reverses.[11] According to Butler et al.:[3]

Major SSWs occur when the winter polar stratospheric westerlies reverse to easterlies. In minor warmings, the polar temperature gradient reverses but the circulation does not, and in final warmings, the vortex breaks down and remains easterly until the following boreal autumn.

However, this classification is based on SSWs in the northern hemisphere, as, by this definition, no major SSW has been observed in the southern hemisphere during the winter.[12]

According to Butler et al.:[3]

There are two main types of SSW: displacement events in which the stratospheric polar vortex is displaced from the pole and split events in which the vortex splits into two or more vortices. Some SSWs are a combination of both types.

Occasionally, a fourth category, Canadian warmings, is included because of their unique and distinguishing structure and evolution.[citation needed]

Major

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Major warmings occur when the westerly winds at 60° and 10 hPa reverse, i.e. become easterly. A complete disruption of the polar vortex is observed and the vortex will either be split into daughter vortices or displaced from its normal location over the pole.

According to the World Meteorological Organization's Commission for Atmospheric Sciences:[13]: 19 

A stratospheric warming can be said to be major if at 10 mb or below the latitudinal mean temperature increases poleward from 60 degree latitude and an associated circulation reversal is observed (that is, the prevailing mean westerly winds poleward of 60° latitude are succeeded by mean easterlies in the same area).

Minor

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Minor warmings are similar to major warmings but are less severe: the westerly winds are slowed but do not reverse. Therefore, a breakdown of the vortex before its final breakdown is never observed. All of the southern hemisphere SSWs observed since 1979 were minor warmings except for the SSW that occurred in September 2002.[12]

McInturff cites the WMO's Commission for Atmospheric Sciences:[13]

A stratospheric warming is called minor if a significant temperature increase is observed (that is, at least 25 degrees in a period of week or less) at any stratospheric level in any area of winter time hemisphere. The polar vortex is not broken down and the wind reversal from westerly to easterly is less extensive.

Final

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The radiative cycle in the stratosphere means that the mean flow is westerly during winter and easterly during summer. A final warming occurs during this transition: the polar vortex winds change direction during the warming, and do not change back until the following winter. This occurs because the stratosphere has entered the summer easterly phase. It is final because, as another warming cannot occur over the summer, it is the final warming of the current winter. Most of the southern hemisphere SSWs fall into this category since they most commonly occur during austral spring and the stratospheric wind and temperature anomalies tend to persist until early summer.[14][15][16] In this sense, southern hemisphere SSWs represent the faster-than-normal seasonal march of the westerly polar vortex.[15][17][18]

Canadian

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Canadian warmings occur early in the winter in the northern hemisphere, typically from mid-November to early December. They have no counterpart in the southern hemisphere.[citation needed]

Dynamics

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In a normal northern hemisphere winter, several minor warming events occur, with a major event occurring roughly every two years. One reason for major stratospheric warmings in the northern hemisphere is that the topography of mountains and difference in temperature between the land and sea generate long (wavenumber 1 or 2)[clarification needed] Rossby waves in the troposphere. These planetary-scale waves travel upward to the stratosphere and dissipate there, decelerating the westerly winds and warming the Arctic.[19] It is for this reason that major warmings are usually only observed in the northern hemisphere—only a single warming has been observed in the southern hemisphere, during September 2002.[20][21][22] As the southern hemisphere is largely oceanic,[23] planetary-scale wave activity is much weaker, and the southern hemisphere vortex westerly is much stronger during the winter. This partly explains why major SSWs have not been observed in the southern hemisphere, at least since instruments were first used to make meteorological observations.

To begin, a blocking weather pattern or "block" forms in the troposphere. This block causes[clarification needed] the amplitudes of Rossby waves with zonal wavenumbers 1 or 2[24] to grow unusually large. These waves propagate into the stratosphere and decelerate the westerly mean zonal winds.[clarification needed] As a consequence, the polar night jet weakens and is distorted. Because wave amplitude increases with decreasing density and the density of air decreases with altitude, this process is not effective at high altitudes. If the waves are sufficiently strong, the mean zonal flow may decelerate enough that the winter westerlies turn easterly. At this point, planetary waves may no longer penetrate into the stratosphere.[25][clarification needed] Hence, further upward transfer of energy is blocked and rapid easterly acceleration occurs alongside polar warming. These waves must then propagate downward, until the entire polar stratosphere is affected. This wave–mean flow interaction is responsible for the downward coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere that occurs during southern hemisphere SSW events as well.[8][26] The upward propagation of these waves and their interactions with the stratospheric mean flow is traditionally identified via Eliassen-Palm fluxes.[27][28]

There is a link between sudden stratospheric warmings and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO): if the QBO is in its easterly phase, the atmospheric waveguide is modified such that upward-propagating Rossby waves are focused on the polar vortex, intensifying their interactions with the mean flow. Thus, in the northern hemisphere, there is a statistically significant imbalance between the frequency of SSWs if these events are grouped according to whether the QBO is in the easterly or westerly phase. In the southern hemisphere, however, this relationship is not as significant.[9][15]

Weather and climate effects

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Although sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are mainly caused by planetary-scale waves that propagate upward from the lower atmosphere, there is also a subsequent return effect of SSWs on the weather and climate near the surface of the planet. Following an SSW, the high altitude westerly winds reverse and are replaced by easterlies. The easterly winds progress down through the atmosphere, which often leads to a weakening of the tropospheric westerly winds. This results in dramatic drops in temperature across Northern Europe.[29] This process can take anywhere from a few days to a few weeks to occur.[1]

Similar downward processes are found in the southern hemisphere during the late spring and early summer. Southern hemisphere SSWs that occur in the spring tend to cause Antarctic ozone concentrations to be higher than normal until early summer.[16][30][31][32] This combination of a weaker polar vortex and a higher level of Antarctic ozone act to cause the tropospheric jet to shift toward the equator.[33] This condition is expressed as the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM)[34] and influences the climate of the southern hemisphere during late spring to early summer.[16][18][35] These SSWs have been found to result in cooler and wetter conditions over Patagonia[16] and warmer and drier conditions over eastern Australia during late spring and early summer,[36][37] increasing the risk of forest fires and bushfires in Australia.[37] These SSWs also influence the extent of the Antarctic sea-ice during the coming summer.[16][38]

Major mid-winter events

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Below is a table of major, mid-winter sudden stratospheric warming events, along with the dates they occurred according to different atmospheric reanalysis projects. Included is data from NOAA's NCEP/NCAR (from 1958 to 2023), NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2; from 1980 to 2023), ECMWF's 40 years (ERA-40; from 1958 to 2002) and interim (ERA-Interim; from 1979 to 2019) re-analyses, and JMA's JRA-55 (from 1958 to 2023). Cells with asterisks indicate events that were not detected in the corresponding re-analysis, while empty cells indicate events that occurred outside of the date range of the corresponding re-analysis.[39]

Event name NCEP/NCAR ERA-40 ERA-Interim JRA-55 MERRA2 ENSO state QBO 50mb
JAN 1958 30 Jan 1958 31 Jan 1958 30 Jan 1958 El Niño West
NOV 1958 30 Nov 1958 **** **** El Niño East
JAN 1960 16 Jan 1960 17 Jan 1960 17 Jan 1960 Neutral West
JAN 1963 **** 28 Jan 1963 30 Jan 1963 Neutral East
MAR 1965 23 Mar 1965 **** **** La Niña West
DEC 1965 8 Dec 1965 16 Dec 1965 18 Dec 1965 El Niño East
FEB 1966 24 Feb 1966 23 Feb 1966 23 Feb 1966 El Niño East
JAN 1968 **** 7 Jan 1968 7 Jan 1968 La Niña West
NOV 1968 27 Nov 1968 28 Nov 1968 29 Nov 1968 El Niño East
MAR 1969 13 Mar 1969 13 Mar 1969 **** El Niño East
JAN 1970 2 Jan 1970 2 Jan 1970 2 Jan 1970 El Niño West
JAN 1971 17 Jan 1971 18 Jan 1971 18 Jan 1971 La Niña East
MAR 1971 20 Mar 1971 20 Mar 1971 20 Mar 1971 La Niña East
JAN 1973 2 Feb 1973 31 Jan 1973 31 Jan 1973 El Niño East
JAN 1977 **** 9 Jan 1977 9 Jan 1977 El Niño East
FEB 1979 22 Feb 1979 22 Feb 1979 22 Feb 1979 22 Feb 1979 Neutral West
FEB 1980 29 Feb 1980 29 Feb 1980 29 Feb 1980 29 Feb 1980 29 Feb 1980 El Niño East
FEB 1981 **** **** **** 6 Feb 1981 **** Neutral West
MAR 1981 **** 4 Mar 1981 4 Mar 1981 4 Mar 1981 **** Neutral West
DEC 1981 4 Dec 1981 4 Dec 1981 4 Dec 1981 4 Dec 1981 4 Dec 1981 Neutral East
FEB 1984 24 Feb 1984 24 Feb 1984 24 Feb 1984 24 Feb 1984 24 Feb 1984 La Niña West
JAN 1985 2 Jan 1985 1 Jan 1985 1 Jan 1985 1 Jan 1985 1 Jan 1985 La Niña East
JAN 1987 23 Jan 1987 23 Jan 1987 23 Jan 1987 23 Jan 1987 23 Jan 1987 El Niño West
DEC 1987 8 Dec 1987 8 Dec 1987 8 Dec 1987 8 Dec 1987 8 Dec 1987 El Niño West
MAR 1988 14 Mar 1988 14 Mar 1988 14 Mar 1988 14 Mar 1988 14 Mar 1988 El Niño West
FEB 1989 22 Feb 1989 21 Feb 1989 21 Feb 1989 21 Feb 1989 21 Feb 1989 La Niña West
DEC 1998 15 Dec 1998 15 Dec 1998 15 Dec 1998 15 Dec 1998 15 Dec 1998 La Niña East
FEB 1999 25 Feb 1999 26 Feb 1999 26 Feb 1999 26 Feb 1999 26 Feb 1999 La Niña East
MAR 2000 20 Mar 2000 20 Mar 2000 20 Mar 2000 20 Mar 2000 20 Mar 2000 La Niña West
FEB 2001 11 Feb 2001 11 Feb 2001 11 Feb 2001 11 Feb 2001 11 Feb 2001 La Niña West
DEC 2001 2 Jan 2002 31 Dec 2001 30 Dec 2001 31 Dec 2001 30 Dec 2001 Neutral East
FEB 2002 **** 18 Feb 2002 **** **** 17 Feb 2002 Neutral East
JAN 2003 18 Jan 2003 18 Jan 2003 18 Jan 2003 18 Jan 2003 El Niño West
JAN 2004 7 Jan 2004 5 Jan 2004 5 Jan 2004 5 Jan 2004 Neutral East
JAN 2006 21 Jan 2006 21 Jan 2006 21 Jan 2006 21 Jan 2006 La Niña East
FEB 2007 24 Feb 2007 24 Feb 2007 24 Feb 2007 24 Feb 2007 El Niño West
FEB 2008 22 Feb 2008 22 Feb 2008 22 Feb 2008 22 Feb 2008 La Niña East
JAN 2009 24 Jan 2009 24 Jan 2009 24 Jan 2009 24 Jan 2009 La Niña West
FEB 2010 9 Feb 2010 9 Feb 2010 9 Feb 2010 9 Feb 2010 El Niño West
MAR 2010 24 Mar 2010 24 Mar 2010 24 Mar 2010 24 Mar 2010 El Niño West
JAN 2013 7 Jan 2013 6 Jan 2013 7 Jan 2013 6 Jan 2013 Neutral East
FEB 2018 12 Feb 2018 12 Feb 2018 12 Feb 2018 12 Feb 2018 La Niña West
JAN 2019 2 Jan 2019 2 Jan 2019 2 Jan 2019 2 Jan 2019 El Niño East
JAN 2021[40][41] 5 Jan 2021 5 Jan 2021 5 Jan 2021 La Niña[42] West[43]
FEB 2023 16 Feb 2023 16 Feb 2023 16 Feb 2023 La Niña West

See also

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References

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Further reading

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